Aukus had a less than immaculate conception. It was conceived in secrecy and born in haste, a tribute to political opportunism and a travesty of disciplined planning. The enthusiasm of theatrical announcements notwithstanding, it was in trouble from the beginning. The US Navy had serious doubts about both the ability of US shipbuilders to deliver submarines in any workable timeframe and the ability of the Royal Australian Navy to integrate and operate them. That was not a question of trust but of capacity – on both sides.
And, of course, experienced and well-informed Australian defence planners rang the warning bells from the beginning.
Is it just sunk cost fallacy at this point or do they know something we don’t? There have been red flags for so long now that it will be a major embarrassment if AUKUS genuinely dies and we have no Plan B. “B-b-but the Coalition started it!!!” won’t cut it as an excuse for a second-term Labor government.