A national Newspoll, conducted October 30 to November 3 from a sample of 1,220 people, gave Labor a 52–48% lead over the Coalition, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the final Newspoll before the October 14 Voice referendum. This is Labor’s narrowest lead in Newspoll since the 2022 federal election.
The historical Newspoll results may be helpful to better contextualize the most recent results.
The predictable labor strategy is to shoot themselves in the foot with a leadership spill and then just manage to squeeze over the line for a second term.