With the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed, prices will likely stay high in the near term. But a weaker cartel could mean more competition in the future.

The author concludes that it’s really hard to know but the article is not difficult to understand for people like me who have no background in economics. It clarifies what OPEC is and what the UAE’s leaving means for oil markets and for us (a big question mark).

If traders believe the UAE’s exit from OPEC will eventually lead to higher production, this could put downward pressure on futures prices. But if they believe the exit increases geopolitical tension – and raises the risk of a future price war – we could instead see more volatile oil prices rather than a clean fall.