Cross-posted from: https://feddit.de/post/8224710
China has reportedly embarked on a controversial path of experimenting with a new Covid-like virus, characterized by a 100% fatality rate in mice. The unfolding scenario raises concerns about the potential risks associated with such experiments, especially the prospect of the virus spilling over into the human population.
Worth noting that most Coronavirus aren’t compatible with humans. The only real danger here is if they actually try to make it human compatible but then we’re talking research that really can’t be called much else than biological warfare research and that’s a big no-no.
Even then, a 100% fatality rate likely has very poor transmission.
Also, this is China, so claims of effectiveness should be taken with a grain of salt.
The main issue here is that it’s the evolution we’re talking about. Even if China is exaggerating, it’s not a stretch to think that the virus could become infectious or even transmissible among humans. And remember that covid19 has an asymptomatic high transmission phase. Again, it’s not a stretch to think that a lower fatality rate or a longer incubation period could lead to a high transmission rate. To put it simply, it’s not favorable for even the most incompetent people to play with bioweapons - the resilience of evolutionary biology more than makes up for it.
Yes but ultimately covid 19 had a relatively low fatality rate. It’s still high compared to things like cold and flu, but low compared to many other diseases. Before the vaccines, young people generally didn’t die, it primarily affected the old and vulnerable.
While it absolutely is a concern - in particular that China is developing these things with apparent malicious intent - there is likely going to be some sort of engineering trade off between fatality and transmitability.
Flu type viruses have three phases: incubation, infection, fatality.
It’s imaginable that a virus with very short incubation and infection phases, could be delivered to a target population either via the water supply, or by directly spraying it over them.
A virus with long incubation, but short infection and quick fatality phases. Could be risked to be let go freely, and still reasonably expect to be able to contain the target population.
If the virus also took into account additional markers to control the duration and severity of each phase, then theoretically.you could design a virus that gave a mild flu to everyone, but at the same time quickly killed some target population, or even a single individual with a 100% fatality rate (for the intended target).
I’ve always felt that biological warfare is a really stupid idea for everyone involved. Like, stuff like nuclear and chemical weapons is not nice, but the effects are relatively localized. With biological warfare though, there is no way to absolutely contain the pathogen and to prevent its spread in your own population.
Stupid, evil and risky sure. But nothing will ever be as effective at absolutely and surely decimating the opposition. Vaccines / Antidotes and very careful, deliberate and sinister targeting while limiting ability to mutate can mitigate most of the MAD aspects making a far more terrifying weapon than nukes in how virtually guaranteed to end a nation, continent, planet you can make them.
Pathogen design is reaching a level where it might be feasible to target it against a single physical trait.
Like: if no proper encoding found in the RNA for insulin producing cells, induce some pancreas cells to produce insulin.
Or: if blood cell presents AB+ markers, induce apoptosis.
There are over 40 blood type types identified so far, and new ones keep getting added… plus hundreds of other types of cell markers… which should let one create a genocidal pathogen against a very closely delimited population (plus some collateral damage, but when has that stopped anyone?).
That doesn’t mean they won’t try. Who is going to stop them? Nobody, because we all want cheap tat from Temu and Shein.
I for one completely and blindly trust Winnie the Pooh and his minions not to jeopardize my health.