Fediverse can only win by keeping its ground, by speaking about freedom, morals, ethics, values. By starting open, non-commercial and non-spied discussions. By acknowledging that the goal is not to win. Not to embrace. The goal is to stay a tool. A tool dedicated to offer a place of freedom for connected human beings. Something that no commercial entity will ever offer.
I feel like the discussion gives google a little bit too much credit for the decline in xmpp popularity. It leaves out the critical context in in how the way people used chat apps changed as we enter the 2010s. Clients like aim, msn yim, google talk and such were replaced by whatsapp, imessenger, telegram, signal, facebook, groupme and etc.
The modern chat ecosystem that took over was one that is based on phone number and phone # contacts list rather than usernames and emails, and they evolved as a next gen style of text messaging. Instead of popping in and out of chats with individuals or groups you’d be always on always connected.
The way people chatted had just shifted. AIM was bigger and more mainstream than google talk was and it had XMPP compatibility, but that didnt really matter because people were chatting differently.