Summary
Putin’s actions after Trump’s election, including a delayed congratulations and a denial of a phone call, suggest a lack of respect for Trump’s personal relationship with him.
Russia’s intelligence chief’s statement that Trump owes them favors for their support in his election, along with hints that he is expected to “pay back” certain obligations, amounts to a bold threat of blackmail.
Trump’s foreign policy, which favors a realignment with Russia, may be challenged by Putin’s actions and the revelation of Russian interference in the election.
I’m not a master diplomat but this is negotiation 101: don’t look too keen to negotiate, start from a position of strength.
Trump’s opening offer was to allow Putin to keep whatever he’s managed to invade and, by most accounts, Russia is now gaining territory again. Plus, Trump is clearly not so keen to continue supporting Ukraine militarily and economically (not to speak of his stance on NATO) and in Europe we are weak, divided and also increasingly voting for our own small versions of Trump (Trumpets?). Put these things together and why would Putin get all chummy and sit down to negotiate now? He’s signaling strength and taking a position of “YOU want to end this war, not me, so if you want me to stop, you better come begging and bringing gifts”.