As Europe prepares to mark the 80th anniversary of VE Day, the YouGov polling also showed large majorities felt that events during and before the second world war were relevant today and must continue to be taught to younger generations.
Between 41% and 55% of respondents in the five European countries polled: Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, said they thought another world war was very or fairly likely within the next five to 10 years, a view shared by 45% of Americans.
Majorities of 68% to 76% said they expected any new conflict would involve nuclear weapons, and between 57% and 73% also said a third world war would lead to greater loss of life than in 1939-1945. Many (25% to 44%) believed it would kill most people in the world.
World War III started in 2022. Some argue it started as early as 2014 or 2008.
but there can be no question that it started in 2022 at the latest. Society has basically married the term WW3 to the idea of a nuclear holocaust, and because there arent nuclear weapons being used yet, many will deny its happening.
yet massive armies are on the move, the sides were drawn, and some of the armies have already started fighting. There’s over a million dead in Russia and Ukraine, thats officially a major conflict, and it shows no signs of stopping. If we could compare this to WW2, We’re no longer in the Spanish Civil War or Italian Africa phase, we’re in the Sino-Japanese phase. (China and Japan were at war in 1936. and that conflict was merged into what became known as WW2)
You know, surveys show 100% of people polled about the future don’t have a fucking clue what the future holds.
BUT! Over half of respondents predicted the scary future, here’s a picture of a nuclear mushroom cloud
Not at all.
What we’ll get is not one big World War of Axis vs. Allies, but everyone at war with some kind of small regional pissing contest or insurgency.
Sure, most of the world will be in some form of conflict, but it won’t be a “World War” in the same sense of a 20-on-20 prolonged conflict with well-defined nation-states on each side. Not that this opinion survey can really capture that.
I tend to agree. So far there hasn’t been enough taking sides for a proper world war to take place. But my fear is that with authoritarians in place in all the major world powers that we will just have the large powers conquering the small for the next few years.
You’re correct, however, keep in mind that authoritarians have fragile egos and are often focused locally, often on how to further subjugate their populations and garner favor. That usually means conflicts like insurgency or cross-border attacks like Russia into Ukraine (x2), Russia into Georgia, US into Mexico/Canada, India and Pakistan fighting over Cashmere, PRC and Taiwan, Serbia and Kosovo, Kenya/Somalia/Somalil and, Uganda and eastern DRC, etc. etc.
Boomer pissing contest fantasies of China and the US duking it out in the Pacific are foolish as neither wants to risk direct conflict with no tangible gains expected. It’s a guarantee of either outright loss or maaaaybe a Pyrrhic victory of you already control your media. No landing party flotilla will land in Los Angeles or Hong Kong. The US only stands to lose.
Can I just point out how cute Americans screaming “Ukraine isnt our war” is expecting the rest of NATO to join their side against China.
China isnt our war, yeah they’re not good, but the only reason America and China are at odds, is because they’re both competing for who gets to be the hegemon and slave driver of the world, respectfully, yall can murder each other into extinction on your own dime, the rest of us would rather do something else with our energy.
Those are precisely the kind of conflicts I’m talking about.
As for USA vs China, it all hinges on what happens in Taiwan. If the USA feels it can onshore all chip fab it probably will let Taiwan get overrun. But I don’t think that likely in the term in which this conflict is likely to happen, so I think the US will be pretty directly involved in this one.
The Chinese are making a lot of noise about Taiwan and that’s why Taiwan is the last place you should be looking at. Look at Outer Manchuria, instead, especially in the face of Russian weakness and looming chaos.
I don’t disagree with you here either. It will be one or the other.
Gotcha, sorry I thought you meant in a sort of a more large-scale coordinated way with the authoritarians.
The easiest way for China to take Taiwan back is to wait for something complicated to occupy the military and WH, even only at the very top leadership level. A protracted and undeniable scandal, another major shake-up while the boss is out of town, or the end result of all this internal military use for law enforcement that seems to want to end posse comitatus within I think 80-ish days at this point, are all options. Spin up the machine to catch it’s own tail and the response elsewhere will be too little and too late because of the more hierarchical nature of decison-making now. Steve Bannon’s own “flood the zone with shit” tactic, inspired by Tsun Tzu.
Chip fab won’t matter because nothing else logical has mattered so far. Why jump straight to a trade war with all your largest trading partners without even preparing for it? Foolishness and ego. Same same here as well.
I don’t see much war happening between Asian neighbours nor Latin American ones, but I can easily see America violently balkanizing (always a matter of time but Trump is the great accelerationist, lol) and Eastern Europe being a hot zone too.
What about India and Pakistan? Or China invading Taiwan?
Somehow I see China absorbing Taiwan without much bloodshed, maybe I’m optimistic. India and Pakistan is something else, you’re probably right. Oh well. :/
If things keep going on the current path, eventually it’s likely to happen, even if I really don’t like that idea and want to be wrong. The best hope at the moment is in the US dealing with its situation internally and regaining at least some sense of normalcy before it gets to a point of true non-return and external retaliaton. With some indirect push by other nations like tariff retaliation and cutting strategic benefits to the US, just enough for the people to wake up and fight the oligarchs, but not so much shock that it triggers an actual war.
And I’m not joking. Trump literally said he rules America, as well as the world. He has stated that he won’t stand for Canada and Europe partnering up to compensate for the lack of the US partnership, and he’s won’t let go of his wet dreams of annexation for several territories. He wants to be remembered as a “great man” in the history books, and not just another footnote billionaire. That kind of ambition is dangerous. Hitler-level dangerous.
For someone like him any excuse is valid. And just like he didn’t take his 2020 election loss lying down, calling it rigged and urging an insurrection, he sure as hell won’t leave the White House without sweat and blood being spilled, now that he’s got his hooves on it again. We are dealing with savages who think themselves superior, and won’t stop willingly.
I am certain that Trump admires Hitler for being THE human name synonymous with evil.
Compare him to, say, Reinhard Heydrich. He is a man that all of us should know, though I imagine that some may need to look him up. No one needs to look up Hitler. And Trump wants to be sure that no one needs to look him up for the next thousand years.
Oligarchs can’t make money if everyone is dead. This will not happen.
Oligarchs will have already stripped the coffers bare by then. Proof of that is just how much of the world’s wealth has been concentrated in the top 0.1%.
They still need peasants to stomp. A scenario where they and a security team are the only humans left alive is a fail state for them - all the stompable people will be dead.
In these hypotheticals what stops the hired security forces from just killing their employers who they likely outnumber and taking everything for themselves?
And they will be on their own private islands with all the wealth they’ve stolen, with all their guards/gardeners supplying all their food.
Or on Mars … whichever comes first.
A life of luxury is not enough for the oligarchs. They must consume more. A private island where everything outside of it is dead will bore them very quickly.
Why? If there’s another 20 billionaires/trillionaires who also live nearby they’ll have all the entertainment they need.
And don’t forget Musk and Bezos will continue working on spaceships and Mars/moon accommodations for them as well.
